Building the transport future we want starts with asking different questions

Many active transport forecasts rely on a simple premise: past travel behaviour can help predict future travel behaviour.

Walking and cycling decisions are influenced by a range of factors, including safety, convenience, connectivity, trip purpose and the quality of available infrastructure. If a community lacks safe cycling routes, low cycling numbers may reflect infrastructure gaps in the network rather than a lack of interest in cycling. As a result, historical data can reinforce travel behaviours shaped by existing infrastructure constraints. When we rely on datasets with limited coverage, we risk making investment decisions based on an incomplete picture of how people travel.

Emerging transport options add another layer of complexity. Growing uptake of e-bikes and e-scooters is expanding the distance and types of trips people are willing to make without a car. These changes are reshaping travel patterns faster than traditional datasets can capture.

Building the transport future we want requires us to look beyond current travel patterns and consider the needs of future communities that may not yet visible in today's data.

A key opportunity in active transport planning is to identify suppressed demand: trips people would choose to walk, cycle or make by another active mode if barriers such as safety, connectivity or convenience were removed.

Rather than focusing only on who cycles or walks today, we can ask broader questions:

• Where do people need to go?
• What destinations matter most to them?
• What is stopping them from choosing active transport?
• How might their choices change if safer or more connected routes existed?

This shift in thinking helps reveal what a network could support, rather than focusing solely on how it performs today.

In many communities, demand already exists. In many cases, people are waiting for infrastructure that feels safe, convenient and connected enough to support their daily journeys.

Transport networks operate in an environment of constant change.

Population growth, new developments, policy shifts, changing work patterns and emerging technologies all influence how people move. Rather than trying to predict a single outcome, planners can gain greater value by exploring multiple possibilities.

Scenario-based planning allows us to test different conditions and understand how demand may respond. For example, we can examine the impact of increased e-bike adoption, changing land-use patterns or new transport connections.

This approach helps organisations make decisions that remain relevant as communities evolve.

It also improves transparency. Stakeholders can see how assumptions influence outcomes and participate more meaningfully in planning discussions.

Active transport infrastructure delivers greater value when viewed as part of a connected transport system. Individual projects matter, but people experience transport networks as connected journeys, not isolated assets.

Taking a network-level perspective helps identify missing links, competing priorities and opportunities to improve connections between walking, cycling, public transport and other modes. It also supports a more balanced approach to movement and place outcomes.

Communities increasingly expect transport infrastructure to do more than move people efficiently. They want places that support local businesses, encourage social connection and contribute to a high quality of life.

A network-wide view helps planners respond to these expectations while still supporting mobility outcomes. 

Historical data remains essential to transport planning, but the way we use it continues to evolve.

A vision-led approach combines demographic information, employment patterns, destination data and long-term growth aspirations to understand how people might use a network under different conditions. Rather than producing a single forecast, the goal is to provide evidence that supports investment prioritisation, planning decisions and stakeholder conversations.

Evidence from completed projects in Queensland illustrates the difference between observed and potential demand. Evaluation of the Cairns Brinsmead-Redlynch connector path identified that 52 per cent of bicycle riders travelling for work or education purposes, would have otherwise driven if the path was not available. Brisbane City Council has reported approximately 10,000 trips per day on the Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, exceeding the level forecast for 2036. While each location has its own context, these results demonstrate why planners would test whether low current usage reflects limited demand or an incomplete network. 

As communities continue to grow, active transport will play an increasingly important role in connecting people to work, education, services and recreation.

For planners and asset owners, the opportunity lies in prioritising investments that strengthen network connectivity, remove barriers and improve access to key destinations. When walking and cycling are considered as part of a connected transport system, infrastructure investment can deliver broader benefits for both movement and place outcomes.

The challenge for planners is no longer understanding how people travel today. It is understanding how they would travel if better options existed. Looking beyond current travel patterns can reveal opportunities that traditional forecasting misses and help direct investment towards networks that deliver lasting value for communities.