Clean fuel opportunities in remote and Northern communities

Meeting Canada's federal emission reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 poses a significant challenge for numerous communities. Among the most pressing concerns for vehicle operators is the financial risk associated with transitioning to clean energy. The magnitude of this transition remains a prominent obstacle to decarbonization, particularly until the purchase price of new technologies aligns more closely with traditional vehicles. This analysis aims to simplify the identification of financially viable clean fuels for various transportation needs in Canada's northern and remote communities.

The key objective was to assess decarbonization pathways for four distinct vehicle groups: Transit, Trucking, Recreational Vehicles and Private Vehicles. The consequent analysis shows the ‘net benefit’ of this transition regarding financial and environmental metrics by calculating the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of adopting Clean Fuels in terms of $ per Kg of CO₂ abated.  

GHD comprehensively assessed the decarbonization landscape by undertaking several key actions: 

• Familiarizing ourselves with data on existing vehicle usage in Northern Canada and remote communities. 
• Analyzing the feasibility and availability of various alternative fuels, including Clean Hydrogen, Renewable Natural Gas, Biogas, Cellulosic Ethanol, Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Synthetic Fuels, and Sustainable Aviation Fuels. 
• Estimating the MAC and price differentials between fossil and clean fuel alternatives identified in the preceding step. 
• Articulating the distinct risks, opportunities, and constraints associated with the physical properties, production methods, availability, supply chain, and financial viability of clean fuels. 
• Evaluating the pros and cons of each clean fuel and its implications for transportation options in Northern Canada. 
• Investigating Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) as potential alternatives for gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles, while monitoring technological advancements to tackle challenges like range anxiety in northern communities. 
• Proactively monitoring advancements in BEV technology across all light-duty vehicle categories to anticipate future developments that could render BEVs suitable for operation in northern and remote Canadian communities, promoting energy self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability.

The analysis highlights the potential for significant carbon emissions reduction through the transition to clean fuels, which could also lower operational costs due to increased fuel efficiency and reduced maintenance. However, the lack of empirical data on these fuels poses challenges, with slight changes in factors like emission rates or fuel efficiency drastically affecting calculations. To address this, continuous updates to assumptions and data are crucial. Renewable natural gas (RNG) emerges as the most beneficial fuel for heavy-duty vehicles, while renewable diesel and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are viable alternatives for light-duty vehicles. Despite challenges like range anxiety in cold climates and infrastructure limitations, advancements in BEV technology suggest promising prospects for their adoption in Northern communities. Embracing clean fuels promotes energy self-sufficiency and economic growth and addresses social equity concerns and fosters sustainable development in these regions.