Planning water supply for industrial futures

Water has always been a foundation of progress. Today, it sits at the heart of the global transition toward low-carbon energy and industrial decarbonisation. In Western Australia, this shift is gaining momentum through a network of SIAs designed to support industries producing future fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia and sustainable aviation fuel.

These industrial zones can create jobs, attract investment and strengthen Australia’s energy security. Yet, their success relies on a critical enabler: access to reliable, affordable and sustainable water and wastewater services. The challenge? Planning those services amid profound uncertainty about what the future holds. 

When we began working with our clients on the Maitland and Oakajee SIAs, Water Servicing Studies, became clear that traditional approaches to infrastructure planning weren’t enough. The questions went beyond “how much water will we need?” They extended to when, where and under what conditions water would be required.

Each SIA involved multiple proponents at different stages of development. Their technologies, production processes and economic and commercial drivers were in flux. Market dynamics, government policies and even global geopolitics all shaped what might unfold. In short, we were planning for an industrial future that did not yet exist.

Uncertainty is not a problem to avoid; it’s a condition to manage. That realisation became the foundation for our approach.

Planning for an uncertain future requires flexibility, which is exactly what Adaptive Pathways Planning provides. This framework helps decision-makers prepare for uncertainty by developing a series of “pathways” or options that can be adjusted as circumstances change. Instead of locking into a single long-term plan, it allows flexibility to pivot as new information emerges.

Through our work, we developed Modelled Adaptive Pathways Planning (MAPP), an enhanced approach that combines adaptive planning with data science and probabilistic (stochastic) modelling to better quantify uncertainty and risk. In simple terms, stochastic modelling uses computer simulations to explore thousands of possible future scenarios. It helps us understand how variables such as water efficiency, cooling methods, global fuel prices, macroeconomic trends and the maturity of offtake agreements might influence outcomes.

By quantifying uncertainty rather than simply acknowledging it, we can make evidence-based decisions that are flexible, robust and grounded in real data. 

The Maitland and Oakajee SIAs represent two different stages of industrial maturity, offering a unique perspective to test our methodology and explore how water planning can remain flexible amid uncertainty.

At Maitland, planning was still at an early conceptual stage. We used macroeconomic and spatial modelling to estimate the potential production capacity and water demand for different industrial configurations and macroeconomic growth scenarios.

At Oakajee, the picture was more defined. Multiple proponents had outlined their development intentions, allowing us to combine their plans, including commercial fundamentals with independent validation and sensitivity testing. This provided a clearer sense of timing, scale and sequence, while maintaining flexibility for change. 

MAPP combines technical sophistication with the ability to turn complex data into actionable insights, helping decision-makers see clearly what to do and when.

At Maitland, we applied multi-criteria analysis (MCA), a structured method for comparing different options using technical and non-technical factors such as cost, environmental impact and future scalability. This was followed by Real Options Analysis, a financial technique borrowed from investment modelling that quantifies the value of flexibility. This helped determine not just what to invest in, but also when.

The outcome was a set of adaptive pathways – roadmaps showing different development trajectories and the triggers for change. These were captured visually in a “plan on a page,” making it easier for planners, investors and government agencies to align decisions and respond as conditions evolve.  

Future fuels will require large volumes of water across Australia’s emerging hydrogen and ammonia industries. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the water sector.

The challenge is clear: large-scale industrial water use can strain local resources, increase costs and compete with community needs.

The opportunity lies in designing water systems that are smarter, circular and future-ready.

These systems recover, recycle and repurpose water in ways that support both industry and community growth.

Through adaptive, modelled planning, we can better understand where these synergies exist. At Maitland and Oakajee SIAs, this meant identifying when desalination would be necessary, how wastewater could be reused and how infrastructure could scale efficiently as demand grows.  

What stood out most during our work and at the Connected by Water conference was how collaboration drives progress. The MAPP framework was not developed in isolation. It drew on GHD’s multidisciplinary services across Perth, Sydney and Darwin, alongside our industry partners.

Each perspective added a new dimension, from policy insight to data science and from financial modelling to on-the-ground operational knowledge. Together, we built a methodology that is not just technically rigorous, but also practical, adaptable and grounded in collaboration.

As industrial development accelerates, the water sector’s role will continue to evolve. Green hydrogen, circular economies and low-carbon manufacturing demand new ways of thinking, not just about how water is supplied, but how it’s valued, shared and sustained. By combining data science, economic insight and collaboration, we can chart pathways that are technically sound and socially meaningful, helping shape the industrial futures that can deliver long-term value for Australia.

This article was developed in collaboration with our industry partner, Celine Stocker from Water Corporation whose insight and contribution was instrumental in shaping the outcomes presented.