Unprecedented but not unprepared: Managing water in a changing climate

In late 2023, climate experts projected a scorching hot and dry summer in Australia for 2024. They also expected that the high temperatures would last well into the winter for six months of heat and increased bushfire risks thanks to the seasonal weather phenomenon El Niño.

With these projections in mind, 64 per cent of our webinar participants agreed that prolonged hot, dry periods pose a serious risk for water utilities to achieve strategic objectives. Despite this, the majority said that an expected El Niño summer hadn’t changed their organisation’s planning and decision-making.

Fast forward to 2024 – Australia endured torrential downpours from Queensland to New South Wales in one of the wettest summers in the country’s history, while the south-east parts of Australia experienced extreme cold entering the winter. The country had its coldest April in a decade, while the rest of the world’s monthly average temperatures were the hottest on record.

Predicting the onset, duration and severity of extreme weather events is not an exact science. Water professionals need to be aware of the potential impacts of such events and plan accordingly. This means being proactive and adaptive. It also means preparing for multiple possible scenarios, especially when climate change brings another layer of complexity and uncertainty.

One way to deal with uncertainty is to use probabilistic information rather than deterministic information. Probabilistic information expresses the likelihood of different outcomes based on the best available data and models.

Another way to deal with uncertainty is to use scenario planning rather than forecasting. Scenario planning is a method of exploring different plausible futures based on the drivers and uncertainties that affect the system of interest.

According to Matthew Coulton, the level of uncertainty is not because of poor science; it's because there is inherent uncertainty in our climate system. We need to embrace that uncertainty and prepare for what could happen, rather than obsessing over trying to work out what will happen.

By understanding uncertainty in climate information, we can make better decisions around our own risk thresholds and the interventions we can make in our business. We can also communicate more effectively with our stakeholders and customers about the level of confidence and uncertainty in our plans and actions.

We need to have a seasonally adaptive approach to how we plan for prolonged dry or wet periods and for climate change in the long term. Long-term planning to increase water security and resilience encompasses measures such as:

• Expanding storage capacity
  • More water storage facilities
  • Raised dam heights
• Enhancing recycling and reuse initiatives
  • Groundwater replenishment
  • Direct potable reuse
  • Desalination
• Implementing conservation policies
  • Water safety quality regulations
  • Financial incentives for participating in conservation efforts

Some of these options have been successfully implemented in places like California, where groundwater replenishment and potable reuse have become icons in the local water industry, while Australia has found success in desalinating seawater for reuse.

Thirty-five per cent of our webinar participants said that the biggest barrier they see for increasing supply of climate-independent water is budget/investment, while 32 per cent point to political will as the biggest barrier. Government grants and low-interest loans help overcome these barriers, but Mark Donovan also suggested that a shift in the project delivery approach, such as using a progressive design-build or pursuing public-private partnerships, can get these projects moving forward.

Water demand management is still a realistic and important measure, but it may require more innovation and collaboration, as the low-hanging fruit has already been picked regarding what individuals can be expected to do to lower their water usage. Public opinion may be moving faster than political opinion, and communities may be ready for more conversations around reuse and efficiency.

According to Dr Sarina Loo, we also need to consolidate our gains from periods of abundance and strategically allocate resources to mitigate the double drought effect on our natural systems – from both water consumption and naturally low rainfall periods.

Applying climate-independent water solutions requires overcoming technical, regulatory, and social challenges, such as perceived impacts on marine life, energy consumption and public acceptance. Engagement can help increase the awareness, acceptance and trust of communities, and address the potential concerns and misconceptions that may arise.

In Australia, we should also look to incorporate Indigenous knowledge in water management as part of a comprehensive community engagement initiative. The interconnectedness of social, environmental and economic factors underscores the need for holistic solutions that promote sustainability and resilience across diverse landscapes.

The perils of climate uncertainty can be paralysing, preventing water organisations from taking decisive action. Progressively extreme weather conditions, swinging back and forth from season to season, catching countries off guard, show that hesitation is no longer an option. We need to think proactively about what early interventions can be done now to prepare for the unknown.

With clarity around these interventions, we can accept that while we may not know exactly what will happen in the future, we know what could happen. That means we can propose interventions within our system that build resilience so that we can face any kind of future.

To learn more about this topic, watch our webinar on what to expect when you're expecting El Niño.