How can passenger modelling transform the airport terminal experience?

In 2024, global air travel finally exceeded pre-pandemic levels with 9.5 billion passengers after a sharp drop in 2020. Demand is projected to increase over the coming decades, with projections at 12 billion passengers by 2030 and 19.5 billion by 2042.  

Unique international global events such as the FIFA World Cup and the upcoming Brisbane 2032 Olympics and Paralympics Games can spike the number of airport users within a short number of days, as many people travel across state lines and country borders to attend events.   

For airports to scale their infrastructure and services to accommodate growing demand and temporary surges in traffic, passenger modelling provides an innovative and cost-effective solution. It is a strategy that can help deliver a more economical use of space, allowing for increased airport capacity and lower operational requirements.  

By implementing passenger modelling, terminals and facilities can be appropriately designed to be optimised for target levels of service relevant to the operational situation. This includes flexibility for typical ‘busy day’ peaks, changes in demand patterns and short-term peaks, such as during global events like the Olympics when crowds are larger, and conditions are busier. 

Airport operators can first utilise passenger modelling to optimise existing infrastructure as much as possible before making costly expansions. Instead of prioritising large-scale construction, applying modifications to current facilities and operational flows can improve efficiency. This strategy can also consider temporary surges in air travel (i.e. driven by holidays or large-scale events), by temporarily expanding airport functionality and seamlessly contracting once demand returns to typical levels. Using passenger modelling also enables scenario testing to help airports make informed decisions for better outcomes in their goal of scaling infrastructure. Data collected from this approach can approximate the specific everyday realities of different airports, making sure that whatever solutions designers decide on are tailored to the contexts they operate in. 

A post-implementation review of passenger modelling can then feed into a continuous improvement cycle, as data gathered from the applied changes may uncover new optimisation opportunities, which can then be tested with modelling and implemented afterwards, upon which another round of post-implementation review can be done. 

Passenger modelling builds a comprehensive understanding of how passengers might navigate airports. It can be applied to both departure and arrival streams, from check-in to security, and expand beyond the terminals all the way to the planes on airside or transport access on landside.  

Depending on the scope, goals and design stage, passenger modelling can be applied through a general review and observations of the proposed design with simpler calculations and Excel-based modelling or more complex microsimulations. These tools are calibrated and validated against industry standards and observational data of passenger behaviour collected at airports to provide confidence in outcomes. The scalability of passenger modelling allows it to support improvements to the passenger experience, whether they’re applied at a specific location like the check-in counters or the whole terminal.  

With an integrated assessment of all the distinct spaces in an airport, enhancements can factor in how passengers move from one space to another to make those transitions seamless. Passenger modelling microsimulations allows for the visualisation of congestion points and conflict areas, enabling the easier identification of risks and development of mitigation strategies.

We have worked with major international airports to support the upgrade of facilities within various sections the airport terminal using pedestrian modelling. This includes the upgrade of boarding facilities to accommodate more passengers. These models included considerations for the available lounge space, departure gate operations, and usage of bussing or walkout facilities to access planes. 

Pedestrian modelling provided vital information for the project team through:

• Informing how the facilities could be operated safety and efficiently. This included considerations for call-to-gate operations to better utilise constrained spaces, where passengers are only informed of their boarding gate number when they are ready to open.
• Verifying whether the facility provisions were adequate to meet the Level of Service targets with different future design day schedules.
• Providing advice on the positioning of furniture and other features in the design.
• Understanding the expected occupancies within the circulation and waiting areas, including usage of vertical transportation (i.e. stairs, lifts and escalators) when moving between levels.
• Presenting modelling outcomes in an easily understandable manner, including through graphs, model snapshots and videos. 

Through this process, the project team were able to better understand the movement of various user types through the facilities. This allowed for appropriate design responses which balanced the usage of space for competing purposes (e.g. waiting, queuing and circulation areas).

In a separate project, we assisted the upgrade of a check-in facility to see how the traditional check-in process could be transformed to accommodate self-service check-ins with over 90 automatic bag drops and over 200 kiosks. A microsimulation model was developed to cover the passenger experience from building entry to check-in and baggage drop, ending at the entrance to the security check.  

The modelling was used to verify that the provision of check-in kiosks and bag drops was sufficient to accommodate their future year design day schedules. Using the visualisation capabilities of the simulation, we were also able to provide advice on the spacing and positioning of the kiosks, where it was identified that the initial kiosk layout was too narrow for passenger movement. Layout adjustments were required to accommodate the movement of trolleys and baggage, which was built into the models. 

Modelling was also utilised to understand other aspects of the facility such as the impact of high trolley usage. This scenario would require stricter management, where trolleys are cleared over shorter cycle times, or else the build-up of discarded trolleys may impede on passenger circulation. Considerations were also given to the separate oversize baggage drop desks, which had a limited number of baggage injection points available and required passengers to take alternative routes through the facility.   

By simulating multiple peak-period scenarios over time for these projects, we were able to provide full journey perspectives as well as in-person views. This allowed us to amalgamate our architecture and engineering capabilities into providing stimulating visualisations to replicate the passenger experience for the client to consider. They can then take appropriate steps to address a projected issue, such as adjusting the design or operations of the facility. 

Passenger modelling provides airports more than just a glimpse into how spaces are used; it provides a strategic framework for future growth, operational excellence and improved passenger satisfaction. As the aviation industry evolves, airports must anticipate demands, adapt with precision, and design with empathy—creating environments that flow as intuitively as the people experiencing them. 

By leveraging passenger modelling, airports can utilise the insights needed to meet today’s challenges while staying one step ahead of tomorrow’s opportunities. It’s not just about understanding how passengers move through your airport; it’s about shaping an experience that works for everyone—now and in the future.