Planning for the unpredictable: Adaptive Pathways Planning in the water sector

Traditional planning and investment approaches are based on the premise that the future is predictable. However, there is deep uncertainty associated with climate change, extreme weather events, land use decisions, new technology, demographic shifts, changing community perspectives and expectations, and evolving policy and regulatory settings, especially when planning 20, 30 or 50 years into the future.

To avoid under- or over-estimating infrastructure needs or mistiming investment decisions, a more holistic, sophisticated way of planning is necessary to maximise flexibility, keep options open and change course as the future unfolds.

Adaptive Pathways Planning is a framework for dealing with deep uncertainty. Instead of planning for a static future scenario, this approach explores multiple plausible events, avoiding premature commitment to a single course of action. This approach is particularly useful in the water sector, which often must make long-range infrastructure and service plans while adapting to constantly changing conditions with limited budgets and resources.

The methodology involves a series of intuitive steps that provide an alternative to the typical planning process used in different areas of water planning. It starts with “big picture” thinking, looking broadly and brainstorming multiple possible alternative futures.

A key feature of the approach is representing different option “pathways” on a diagram or map, illustrating how they are sequenced over time, and how you might switch between them as the future unfolds. This includes identification of thresholds (tipping or turning points) at which the existing system no longer performs as required, and triggers for deciding to pursue a new option.

The UK Environment Agency was one of the pioneers of this methodology, with the development of the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan. This long-term flood risk management plan, which took a decade to develop, outlines a strategy for defending against sea level rise throughout the century. A key feature is its flexibility, allowing for adjustments as new information about flood risks becomes available.

This approach has been widely adopted in Australia water sector. For example, in Melbourne, Australia, a city of five million people which could double in population over the next 30 to 50 years. The city's water supply and demand strategy is based on Adaptive Pathways Planning, allowing for a flexible response to various scenarios. This includes continued investment in conservation and efficiency, integrated water management, and major supply augmentations in response to changing conditions and uncertainties.

Western Australia’s state water utility, Water Corporation, has developed an integrated water supply plan for Perth using Adaptive Pathways Planning. The plan focuses on readiness for multiple scenarios, with key decision points identified. As a result, Water Corporation has three major project options being developed to be “shovel-ready”, providing flexibility and choice.

Adaptive Pathways Planning is not just about considering the future, but also about making appropriate decisions in the present. It enables us to envisage how short-term actions can limit longer-term options in the future and helps avoid making decisions that lock in a constrained future. It optimises investments by avoiding unnecessary, sunk and redundant infrastructure costs, and provides a way to plan for deep uncertainty.

By encouraging us to think about and plan for multiple futures, Adaptive Pathways Planning helps create strategies that are both flexible and robust.

Future of Water is GHD’s commitment to help you pre-empt and prepare for what's next. It’s a commitment to collaborate and co-create, so you can face the future with confidence and conviction.