Strategic modelling of environmental policy for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The Green Revolution's intensive agricultural practices initially reduced poverty and hunger but are now recognised as unsustainable and environmentally damaging, with a third of the world's soils degraded and significant costs to soil health in the UK. Modern farming's reliance on fossil fuels and its contribution to deforestation add to the challenges.

The UK government's Agricultural Transition Plan from 2021 to 2024 aims to replace direct payments with targeted incentives for sustainable farming practices and habitat creation. However, it faces complexities due to limited research and data, as well as diverse objectives covering food security, resilience, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration.

As Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (DEFRA) Strategic Modelling Partner, we are using specialist modelling, data science, and software to drive evidence-based decisions for new environmental land management policies, aiming to enhance their value for money. 

We are building a central suite of models to address policy questions, prioritising features based on stakeholder input and value considerations. 

Our team has delivered an integrated modelling suite in Python and a custom web application and database for exploring environmental scheme options, following agile principles and common toolkits.

These schemes will reward farmers for sustainable farming practices (such as reducing carbon emissions, creating and preserving habitat, and making landscape-scale environmental changes), and through improvements to animal health and welfare. This is an important step towards achieving the country’s 25 year environment plan ambitions and its carbon net zero goals.

Our models represent a significant leap forward in the government’s drive for evidence-based policymaking and guarantee taxpayer’s value for money is maximised in the achievement of policy objectives.