ASEAN poised to produce 8.5 million barrels of sustainable aviation fuel daily by 2050
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With the pressing need to decarbonise aviation, ASEAN economies could generate as much as 8.5 million barrels per day of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report.
With the pressing need to decarbonise aviation, ASEAN economies could generate as much as 8.5 million barrels per day of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report.
The report provides a regional supply chain assessment for 2030, 2040, and 2050, examining potential SAF demand and supply scenarios across Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam, as well as import markets including Japan, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea (ROK).
The report was developed by GHD through financial support provided by Global Affairs Canada from the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development (CTIF) implemented by Cowater International (Cowater) in association with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada (IPAC) and Global Affairs Canada, with Boeing as the knowledge partner, and supporting the ASEAN Secretariat.
SAF is a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel that meets sustainability criteria, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and is compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure, as a “drop-in” fuel. ASEAN’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.
According to the SAF 2050 Outlook report, all the ASEAN countries examined could potentially have sufficient capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters. Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production, while Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, may have the most cost-efficient distribution for markets in Japan, Singapore and ROK.
In addition to exporting SAF, ASEAN is predicted to become a significant market for SAF in its own right. The report projects that SAF demand in ASEAN will grow sharply from 15,000 barrels per day in 2030, to over 700,000 barrels per day by 2050. The largest SAF demands are expected to come from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, as well as other Asian economies such as Japan and ROK.
The report also examined different ways of producing SAF. Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) is the most prevalent technology for producing SAF today, costing about twice as much as jet fuel, with the largest cost contributor being feedstock. Alternative Gasification/Fisher-Tropsch (Gasification + FT), and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) pathways could be 4-7 times more expensive, but this gap is expected to reduce as technologies mature and scale up.
Deputy Secretary-General for the ASEAN Economic Community, Satvinder Singh, said, “The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook confirms our region’s strong comparative advantage on the supply side, particularly in the availability of sustainable bio-feedstocks. At the same time, rising regional and global demand for sustainable aviation fuel presents a clear market opportunity for ASEAN.’’
To fully capitalise on both demand and supply dynamics, ASEAN Member States should work together to scale up production capacity, deploy cost-effective technologies, and establish robust regional trade and market frameworks. By efficiently matching our abundant agricultural resources with growing SAF demand, ASEAN can position itself not only as a self-sufficient and competitive sustainable aviation hub, but also as a reliable energy supplier supporting the decarbonisation of the broader Asia-Pacific aviation and energy markets.”
Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability lead for Southeast Asia said, “Southeast Asia’s commercial aviation industry is growing rapidly to serve the region’s expanding economies and meet demand from passengers and for air cargo. In addition to adding more fuel-efficient airplanes to the fleet, increasing Southeast Asia’s supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will further enable responsible growth. The ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook shows the region’s strong potential to increase SAF production with the right policies, partnerships and investments.”
Sachin Narang, GHD’s Executive Advisor – Energy and Infrastructure, said, “We are at an exciting juncture with respect to SAF because ASEAN has an abundance of agricultural and forestry waste that could serve as low-cost feedstock, narrowing the premium between HEFA-derived SAF and jet fuel. At the same time, policy intervention, overall targeted interventions, scaling, and innovation can narrow the cost gap for alternative SAF pathways over the medium to long term.”
The full ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report can be referred to here.
The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report follows the joint Canadian-ASEAN techno-economic assessment on converting agricultural waste into SAF released in April 2025.
Key findings of the joint Canadian-ASEAN research project extension:
- ASEAN’s Comparative Advantage: ASEAN regional SAF supply potential significantly outpaces projected demand, highlighting Southeast Asia’s comparative advantage as a potential future SAF hub.
- Rapidly growing demand in Southeast Asia: Based on potential uptake of SAF blend rates, the forecast SAF demand in ASEAN was projected to grow sharply from 15,000 bpd in 2030, to over 700,000 bpd by 2050. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand were expected to be the largest demand centers in the ASEAN region.
- Significant SAF supply potential: The potential SAF supply from agricultural and sustainable forestry biomass is projected to rise from approximately 7.5 million bpd in 2030 to reaching as much as 8.5 million bpd in 2050. All ASEAN countries examined could potentially have sufficient capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters. Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production. Southeast Asia’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.
- Export and regional trade opportunities: By 2040, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam could become net exporters, while Japan, Singapore and the Republic of Korea are anticipated as strong SAF importers in region. Additionally, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, may have the most cost-efficient distribution, when considering key potential SAF importers noted above.
- Financial Assessment: Boeing led the research approval of the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway in 2011, today it is the most prevalent technology adopted for SAF production. Through the technology pathway financial assessment conducted, HEFA was found to have a levelised cost of about double that of crude oil-derived jet fuel, while Gasification/Fisher-Tropsch (Gasification + FT), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) pathways ranged from four (4) to seven (7) times higher. This gap is expected to reduce as technologies mature and scale up.
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