Planning for an uncertain future

Our traditional approach tends to result in relatively short-term planning cycles of ten years or less, partnered with a once in a generation investment in infrastructure. This approach pushes assets to the edge of their capacity and capability as they age and respond to growth pressures. To build resilience into our planning, we need a system that can cope with not only predictable changes but also sudden shocks. From demographic change to earthquakes and extreme weather patterns - rainfall, flooding, and one in 100-year droughts.

If we are to respond to the constant change and uncertainty facing communities, our thinking needs to be open to a wider range of technical and water servicing options -'All Options on the Table’. This means diverse thinking, Integrated Water Management (IWM) approaches, and increased collaboration between stakeholders and industry partners. This is beginning to sound a lot like the water sector transformation envisaged under the NZ Three Waters’ Water Reforms, so how might we achieve such a pivotal shift?

Adaptive Pathways Planning (elsewhere known referred to as Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP)) is an established approach that enables asset owners to explore the possible outcomes of differing future scenarios and develop a flexible but clear roadmap in response to a range of future uncertainties. 

The UK Government first adopted Adaptive Pathways Planning in 2012 with the Thames Estuary 2100 Flood Management Plan, closely followed by the Dutch Delta Programme for Fresh Water Supply and Flood Management in the Netherlands. Since then, Adaptive Pathways Planning has been applied and developed in multiple regions and contexts, strengthening its viability. Closer to home, the tool has informed flood risk management for the Hutt River. 

The beauty of this approach is the flexibility of application - it can be used on any type of project - at a programme level or to form part of an organisation’s strategic planning, providing a long-term vision and framework for all decision-making. This enables service providers to move from a tactical, static, and somewhat reactive perspective to strategic and proactive long-term planning.

Rather than replacing our current methodology, Adaptive Pathways Planning is an expansion of current planning practices, accounting for numerous risks and future scenarios, rather than a single predicted future with a fixed timeframe. It begins with a definition of the problem and outcomes sought, considering factors such as time horizon, predictable risks, and sudden shocks, quality of information available, the extent of analysis required, and the level of uncertainty.

 The methodology is broken down into four key steps: 

• Structuring the problem 
• Exploring solutions
• Evaluation 
• Implementation
  
  

The process begins with a robust understanding of the current system and the issues at play, tailoring the adaptive planning approach to the agreed areas of focus. Relevant programmes of work or individual projects are then identified. Following this, scenario planning is used to explore a range of solutions to shape up an agile, resilient response to the risks and future scenarios faced.

Through a multidisciplinary and collaborative process, an adaptive pathways road map for a range of scenarios is developed.

Thresholds are used to guide the process, indicating at what point the current system will no longer be viable and when an alternative or amended course of action is required. For example, an asset becomes inundated due to sea level rise, or a treatment plant can no longer meet community demand due to growth. Trigger points are set prior to the threshold being met to stimulate planning and decision making, as well as to determine if a management pathway should continue along its current trajectory or shift to an alternate approach. These proposed approaches are evaluated, and a preferred solution is recommended. Ultimately, the process loop is closed through implementation review and continuous improvement/adaptation of the initial plan.

As more organisations begin to embed this approach into their way of working, we expect this methodology to become commonplace. Across the Tasman, Melbourne Water has developed and implemented an Adaptive Planning Guideline. The Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA) is advocating for a wide range of options to be considered and managed in an integrated manner in response to growing water demand and water scarcity, these options include water conservation and efficiency, rainwater harvesting, groundwater resources, water sharing between regions, non-potable reuse of wastewater effluents, purified and recycled water for drinking and desalination. Perhaps not all of these would be considered pertinent in New Zealand in the short term, but some are others are likely to become increasingly attractive in response to the over-allocation of surface water sources and the reduced rainfall due to climate change in some regions.

In New Zealand, Whangārei District Council have recently lodged a resource consent application for the Whangārei Wastewater Treatment Plant for a maximum 35-year consent term. It is based on an adaptive, long-term management approach which reaches and plans beyond the 35-year horizon. The application seeks to address and respond to triggers such as population growth, water quality and odour management. It also acknowledges stringent discharge standards and biosolids management, two other key areas of risk.

Watercare is applying DAPP, developed by Deltares, to its water and wastewater infrastructure planning in response to drought, sea-level rise and flood risk. This facilitates the implementation of flexible engineering, over short-term solutions. At the Helensville Wastewater Treatment Plant for example, rework and over-investment has been avoided through a robust monitoring regime and evidence base, enabling more robust planning and decision-making.

In this pivotal moment for our industry as we prepare for the upcoming Water Reforms, approaches such as Adaptive Planning Pathways will become critical to realisation of core themes from Te Mauri o te Wai and sustainability, to the digitalisation of water networks, strong partnerships, leadership, and governance. To begin adopting them now will secure their position in the strategic planning frameworks of current and future water entities, ensuring a smoother transition and transformation of the NZ water sector.